Saturday 31 December 2016

Like wading through vomit while having excrement constantly thrown in your face. 


Some years ago this is how a mate of mine described the week after Christmas in retail and while it's a bit graphic it does get across the message quite cogently. And that was in the good old days. 


There is no doubt that for the modern independent retailer on the high street Christmas is the ultimate poison chalice. 

What used to be a bumper time for such a business has turned into something of a nightmare scenario. I can speak from experience after over thirty years at the sharp end as a small town retailer across a number of different product sectors. 


The first thing i'd say is that you should be very wary of what so called retail analysts tell you. Generally speaking these folk have little to no experience of actual on the ground retailing. Moreover examining broad trends ,while useful, does not tell the full story...as always the devil is in the detail and detail generally gets overlooked.  

Moreover there is a tendency for those that are asked for feedback on the retail scene not to tell the complete truth..gilding the lily pretty much goes with the territory and it's rare for any retail representative to come clean about how bad things really are. Most hedge their bets.  


We are now in the week after Christmas as i write this and to give some perspective here's a comparison. Four years ago on Christmas Eve alone we would have lifted more in takings than we took in the entire six days prior to Christmas Day this year.  Considerably more. The week after Christmas used to be our busiest of the year...that week at the height of things five or six years back would have compared to an average quieter MONTHS takings. This year we will be doing well over the five days to match a normal to average to busy week...and that will be pushing it. I'd say if you compared our figures from say 6 years ago we would be down as much as 70 percent...to be honest I no longer do so as it is too demoralising. Seeing it in black and white would perhaps finally push me over the edge. As it is last festive season was the worst ever for the shop...this year it will be a big achievement to get within shouting distance of it. Very few people would actually believe how bad its become...but it has. And it's getting worse. 


The reason? Well several no doubt but chiefly the Internet. Nothing has done more to devastate high street retail over the past few scant years and that trend is set to continue unabated. At this rate within a decade i'd be surprised if there are any of us left. Perhaps I am being over generous allowing a decade frankly. All the talk of bricks and mortar retail cohabiting symbiotically with the net is wishful thinking bordering on delusion...flys rarely cohabit with large hungry spiders. A few larger chains may be able to combine the two for a while but the soaring overheads of  maintaining a presence on the high street will make any such long term fusion of the two mediums a forlorn hope. The Internet may be a driver of volume, especially for the larger operators but it is a graveyard for profits...at least as far as any third party retailer is concerned. As more business moves on line (with limited margin available) the diminishing returns of physical retail will soon render itself obsolete. It's good bye high street...along with the jobs and business rates that go with it. If you think differently you are either in cloud cuckoo land or have no knowledge of modern retail. Then when you add in the general economic squeeze, and allow for the uncertainty of Brexit , not to mention the preponderance of discount/outlet selling then you have a pretty bleak outlook if you are a small, independent business trying to stay afloat. A minnow in a sea of sharks with the water draining. Basically we are fucked. We are a walking corpse only refusing to lie down through sheer stubbornness and an awareness that there is not much else some of us can turn our hands to. So what is to be done?  


Well on the face of it not much to be honest. Ongoing financial uncertainty combined with the pre-eminence of the internet will ensure that there is no respite for independent bricks and mortar retailers. Perhaps the fight is just lost and that is it. The end. 


And what of the "if you can't beat them join them" argument and go online? Well if only it were that simple. For a small cash strapped  not so tech savy retailer to get on line is not easy...and not cheap. Also assuming you actually get set up on there, competing with the big boys is almost impossible...for a variety of reasons. Specialization and niche appeal are words often thrown around but they still have to overcome the overwhelming difficulty of SEO and all it's myriad complexities. Then you have to try and make money...turnover alone won't keep you in business. 


For myself i suspect this coming year will be the last throw of the dice. I am considering doing something with Shopify, one of the better "template" crowd ...low set up costs and minimal ongoing maintenance charge combined with (hopefully) reasonable performance and visibility. The latter remains to be seen. As to what exactly that "something" will be well i'm not quite sure. It will be outdoor product...but i suspect it will have to be a bit more focused than in store. That is assuming i have the cash to buy stock...there is no guarantee. 


When I began this blog it was the day after boxing day. It's now New Year's Eve and trade this week has been nothing short of pitiful. No one can survive indefinitely on scraps and I am no exception. That may not matter much in the grand scheme of things but according to the experts SMEs like myself are the backbone of the local economy...well in that case the local economy is well and truly fucked. As I remarked to a smart arse "shop visitor" recently, Amazon won't pay for the local leisure centre or supply a voucher for the local football club's tom-bola. He was of course far to too thick to make the connection. In the end if you want the option of local retail and the money it pumps into the area then you need to support it. Otherwise it's history. Use it or lose it. I think it's too late for myself but we shall see. Perhaps i will be proved wrong. 


There is more to be said on the personal front but this will do for now. If you are reading this then you are part of a very select group and I wish you a fulfilling and healthy New Year. 


We can always hope.